Thursday: the week ahead, before anyone has played. A sample from a made-up league: every team, player and score is invented, every number computed. The same week all three editions: tap one.
Winners of six straight: Waiver Wire Warriors vs. Red Zone Regulars
Plus: Cover Two's playoff chances swing from 63% to 31% against Hut Hut Hike, and Hail Mary Hopefuls sits at 97% for the toilet bowl.
Waiver Wire Warriors has won six straight and is a 65% favorite to make it seven against Red Zone Regulars (12-8). A win puts Red Zone Regulars at 97% to make the playoffs; a loss, 84%.
Nothing this week moves the race more than Cover Two, losers of three straight, against Hut Hut Hike: 63% to make the playoffs with a win, 31% with a loss. On paper, the closest game is Bench Mob vs. Play Action: Play Action is a 62% favorite.
Two-Minute Drill and Waiver Wire Warriors are all but in at 95% or better. One team sits between 25% and 75% to make the playoffs: Cover Two (53%). At the other end, Hail Mary Hopefuls is the likeliest toilet-bowl team at 97%, ahead of Hut Hut Hike at 58%.
Two-Minute Drill, winners of four straight, is projected for the week's top score, 141.4, 13.1 above its 128.3 average. First kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 PM ET.
The matchups, by what's at stake
This one decides a lot for Cover Two: 63% to make the playoffs with a win, 31% with a loss. Silas Yardley (QB, 21.0 projected) leads Cover Two's lineup; Quinn Ingram (QB, 25.3) leads Hut Hut Hike's. Rematch of Week 2, when Hut Hut Hike won 134.2-121.5.
This one decides a lot for Play Action: 92% to make the playoffs with a win, 67% with a loss. Avery Barlow (QB, 26.1 projected) leads Bench Mob's lineup; Jalen Thayer (QB, 31.3) leads Play Action's, the top projection of any starter this week. Rematch of Week 2, when Play Action won 148.5-130.6.
Air Raid Offense's toilet-bowl chances move 24 points on this game, 25% with a win and 49% with a loss. Reid Abbott (QB, 23.2 projected) leads Air Raid Offense's lineup; Vance Lockhart (RB, 23.3) leads Two-Minute Drill's. Rematch of Week 2, when Air Raid Offense won 127.9-109.2.
Fourth & Long's playoff chances move 11 points on this game, 96% with a win and 85% with a loss. Ike Corbin (QB, 28.7 projected) leads Fourth & Long's lineup; Hollis Whitlock (QB, 22.7) leads Hail Mary Hopefuls'. Rematch of Week 2, when Hail Mary Hopefuls won 129.1-109.1.
Red Zone Regulars' playoff chances move 13 points on this game, 97% with a win and 84% with a loss. Tate Whitlock (QB, 22.8 projected) leads Waiver Wire Warriors' lineup; Silas Oakes (QB, 29.5) leads Red Zone Regulars'. Rematch of Week 2, when Waiver Wire Warriors won 128.9-103.5.
Things to watch
- Closest on paper: Bench Mob vs. Play Action. Play Action is a 62% favorite, 119.0 to 127.0 projected. Both are in the playoff picture: Bench Mob at 80%, Play Action at 83%.
- Biggest mismatch: Fourth & Long vs. Hail Mary Hopefuls. Fourth & Long is projected 26.9 points better, and at 17%, Hail Mary Hopefuls is the week's longest shot.
- Highest projected total: Air Raid Offense vs. Two-Minute Drill. 259.4 points between them: Air Raid Offense projected for 118.0, Two-Minute Drill for 141.4.
- Rematch: Cover Two vs. Hut Hut Hike. Hut Hut Hike won the Week 2 meeting, 134.2-121.5; this time Cover Two is a 69% favorite.
- Streak on the line: Waiver Wire Warriors. Six straight wins for Waiver Wire Warriors, and a 65% chance to make it seven against Red Zone Regulars.
Week 10 in review
- Top score: Hail Mary Hopefuls, 142.7.
- Lowest score: Play Action, 65.7. A loss to Fourth & Long, 122.2-65.7.
- Closest finish: Waiver Wire Warriors over Air Raid Offense, 96.6-94.2. Decided by 2.4, and the week's lowest winning score.
- Biggest blowout: Fourth & Long over Play Action, 122.2-65.7.
- Best losing score: Bench Mob scored 127.2 and lost; that beats seven of the other nine scores this week.
Injury report
- Hut Hut Hike: Quinn Oakes (Out).
- Play Action: Marco Upton (Questionable).
Trades
- Fourth & Long and Two-Minute Drill: Fourth & Long sent Otis Thayer to Two-Minute Drill for Marco Barlow and Blake Delaney.
Top projected starters
| PLAYER | POS | TEAM | PROJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Thayer | QB | Play Action | 31.3 |
| Silas Oakes | QB | Red Zone Regulars | 29.5 |
| Ike Corbin | QB | Fourth & Long | 28.7 |
| Avery Barlow | QB | Bench Mob | 26.1 |
| Quinn Ingram | QB | Hut Hut Hike | 25.3 |
| Vance Lockhart | RB | Two-Minute Drill | 23.3 |
| Reid Abbott | QB | Air Raid Offense | 23.2 |
| Tate Whitlock | QB | Waiver Wire Warriors | 22.8 |
Standings
Through Week 10.
| TEAM | W-L | PF | PA | STREAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiver Wire Warriors | 16-4 | 1211.4 | 1041.8 | W6 |
| Two-Minute Drill | 14-6 | 1283.2 | 1202.5 | W4 |
| Red Zone Regulars | 12-8 | 1210.1 | 1163.9 | W2 |
| Fourth & Long | 11-9 | 1287.0 | 1117.3 | W1 |
| Bench Mob | 11-9 | 1177.7 | 1249.8 | L1 |
| Play Action | 10-10 | 1126.8 | 1143.4 | L1 |
| Cover Two | 8-12 | 1190.4 | 1204.6 | L3 |
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | 6-14 | 1060.5 | 1167.0 | W1 |
| Air Raid Offense | 6-14 | 1052.2 | 1141.4 | L2 |
| Hut Hut Hike | 6-14 | 1026.9 | 1194.5 | L5 |
The top-5 race
The week's top 5 scores each earn an extra win.
| TEAM | PROJ | TOP-5 CHANCE |
|---|---|---|
| Two-Minute Drill | 141.4 | 85% |
| Cover Two | 129.6 | 67% |
| Play Action | 127.0 | 62% |
| Waiver Wire Warriors | 125.7 | 59% |
| Fourth & Long | 123.2 | 53% |
| Bench Mob | 119.0 | 45% |
| Air Raid Offense | 118.0 | 43% |
| Hut Hut Hike | 115.4 | 39% |
| Red Zone Regulars | 114.7 | 37% |
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | 96.3 | 10% |
Playoff chances
Today (the tick) and after this week's head-to-head and lib-win results.
Show as a table
| TEAM | TODAY | AFTER 0-2 | AFTER 1-1 | AFTER 2-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Minute Drill | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
| Waiver Wire Warriors | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
| Fourth & Long | 94% | 84% | 92% | 98% |
| Red Zone Regulars | 88% | 81% | 94% | 99% |
| Play Action | 83% | 62% | 82% | 94% |
| Bench Mob | 80% | 67% | 85% | 96% |
| Cover Two | 53% | 25% | 45% | 67% |
| Air Raid Offense | 1% | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| Hut Hut Hike | 1% | <1% | <1% | 3% |
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Playoffs or toilet bowl
Where each team's season ends up: the top 6 make the playoffs, the bottom 2 play in the toilet bowl.
Show as a table
| TEAM | PLAYOFFS | NEITHER | TOILET BOWL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | <1% | 3% | 97% |
| Hut Hut Hike | 1% | 41% | 58% |
| Air Raid Offense | 1% | 55% | 44% |
| Cover Two | 53% | 45% | 1% |
| Play Action | 83% | 17% | <1% |
| Bench Mob | 80% | 20% | <1% |
| Fourth & Long | 94% | 6% | <1% |
| Red Zone Regulars | 88% | 12% | <1% |
| Two-Minute Drill | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| Waiver Wire Warriors | >99% | <1% | <1% |
Every number here is computed, not written by AI: 10,000 simulated seasons from each team's best projected lineup, calibrated against real results. Chances may not add to 100% because of rounding. In the standings, points for and against count head-to-head games; the streak is the current run of head-to-head results.