Monday: it all comes down to Monday night. The same made-up league all week: tap an edition.
Down to Monday night: Waiver Wire Warriors needs 19.8 to beat Red Zone Regulars and keep a six-game win streak alive
A sample edition from a made-up league: every team, player and score is invented, every number computed.
Week 11 wraps up Monday at 8:15 PM ET, and Cover Two vs. Hut Hut Hike is the game with the most riding on it. The closest matchup on paper is Waiver Wire Warriors vs. Red Zone Regulars, with Red Zone Regulars a 53% favorite. Red Zone Regulars, Two-Minute Drill and Waiver Wire Warriors are all but in at 95% or better, and one team sits between 25% and 75% to make the playoffs. At the other end, Hail Mary Hopefuls is the likeliest toilet-bowl team at 86%, ahead of Air Raid Offense at 66%. Red Zone Regulars is projected for the week's top score, 138.6.
The matchups, by what's at stake
Cover Two: playoff odds 65% with a win, 31% with a loss. Key players: Silas Yardley (21.0) for Cover Two, Quinn Ingram (25.3) for Hut Hut Hike. Hut Hut Hike won their Week 2 meeting, 134.2-121.5.
Bench Mob: playoff odds 92% with a win, 77% with a loss. Key players: Avery Barlow (26.1) for Bench Mob, Jalen Thayer (31.3) for Play Action. Play Action won their Week 2 meeting, 148.5-130.6.
Fourth & Long: playoff odds 99% with a win, 90% with a loss. Key players: Ike Corbin (28.7) for Fourth & Long, Hollis Whitlock (22.7) for Hail Mary Hopefuls. Hail Mary Hopefuls won their Week 2 meeting, 129.1-109.1.
Red Zone Regulars: playoff odds >99% with a win, 98% with a loss. Key players: Tate Whitlock (22.8) for Waiver Wire Warriors, Silas Oakes (29.5) for Red Zone Regulars. Waiver Wire Warriors won their Week 2 meeting, 128.9-103.5.
Air Raid Offense: this week's result is all but certain. Key players: Reid Abbott (23.2) for Air Raid Offense, Vance Lockhart (23.3) for Two-Minute Drill. Air Raid Offense won their Week 2 meeting, 127.9-109.2.
Things to watch
- Upset watch: Hail Mary Hopefuls (6-14). They lead Fourth & Long (11-9) by 46.3, with a 96% chance to win.
- Comeback watch: Waiver Wire Warriors. Down 19.8 to Red Zone Regulars with about 19.2 projected points still to play, and a 47% chance. A six-game winning streak is riding on it.
- Biggest mismatch: Two-Minute Drill vs. Air Raid Offense. Two-Minute Drill is projected 29.5 points better.
- Rematch: Bench Mob vs. Play Action. Play Action won the Week 2 meeting, 148.5-130.6.
- Streak on the line: Hut Hut Hike. Five straight losing weeks, against Cover Two.
Week 10 in review
- Top score: Hail Mary Hopefuls, 142.7.
- Lowest score: Play Action, 65.7.
- Closest finish: Waiver Wire Warriors over Air Raid Offense, 96.6-94.2.
- Biggest blowout: Fourth & Long over Play Action, 122.2-65.7.
- Best losing score: Bench Mob, 127.2. The week's 3rd-highest score, and still a loss.
Players to watch
Each team's top projected starter this week.
| TEAM | PLAYER | POS | PROJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Play Action | Jalen Thayer | QB | 31.3 |
| Red Zone Regulars | Silas Oakes | QB | 29.5 |
| Fourth & Long | Ike Corbin | QB | 28.7 |
| Bench Mob | Avery Barlow | QB | 26.1 |
| Hut Hut Hike | Quinn Ingram | QB | 25.3 |
| Two-Minute Drill | Vance Lockhart | RB | 23.3 |
| Air Raid Offense | Reid Abbott | QB | 23.2 |
| Waiver Wire Warriors | Tate Whitlock | QB | 22.8 |
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | Hollis Whitlock | QB | 22.7 |
| Cover Two | Silas Yardley | QB | 21.0 |
Standings
Through Week 10. Points for and against count head-to-head games; the streak is the current run of head-to-head results.
| TEAM | W-L | PF | PA | STREAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiver Wire Warriors | 16-4 | 1211.4 | 1041.8 | W6 |
| Two-Minute Drill | 15-6 | 1283.2 | 1202.5 | W4 |
| Red Zone Regulars | 12-8 | 1210.1 | 1163.9 | W2 |
| Fourth & Long | 11-9 | 1287.0 | 1117.3 | W1 |
| Bench Mob | 11-9 | 1177.7 | 1249.8 | L1 |
| Play Action | 10-10 | 1126.8 | 1143.4 | L1 |
| Cover Two | 8-12 | 1190.4 | 1204.6 | L3 |
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | 6-14 | 1060.5 | 1167.0 | W1 |
| Air Raid Offense | 6-15 | 1052.2 | 1141.4 | L2 |
| Hut Hut Hike | 6-14 | 1026.9 | 1194.5 | L5 |
The top-5 race
The top 5 scores this week each earn an extra win. Projected scores and each team's chance.
| TEAM | PROJ | TOP-5 ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Red Zone Regulars | 138.6 | >99% |
| Waiver Wire Warriors | 138.0 | >99% |
| Two-Minute Drill | 128.5 | >99% |
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | 124.2 | >99% |
| Hut Hut Hike | 115.8 | 63% |
| Cover Two | 112.4 | 18% |
| Fourth & Long | 106.6 | 18% |
| Bench Mob | 103.3 | 1% |
| Air Raid Offense | 99.0 | <1% |
| Play Action | 97.5 | <1% |
Playoff chances
Each team's chance today (the tick) and after this week: lose both, split, or win both (head-to-head and lib win).
Show as a table
| TEAM | TODAY | AFTER 0-2 | AFTER 1-1 | AFTER 2-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Minute Drill | >99% | – | – | >99% |
| Waiver Wire Warriors | >99% | – | >99% | >99% |
| Red Zone Regulars | 99% | – | 98% | >99% |
| Fourth & Long | 90% | 89% | 97% | 99% |
| Bench Mob | 90% | 77% | 92% | 98% |
| Play Action | 78% | 76% | 90% | – |
| Cover Two | 39% | 31% | 49% | 71% |
| Hut Hut Hike | 3% | <1% | 2% | 5% |
| Air Raid Offense | 1% | 1% | – | – |
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | <1% | – | <1% | <1% |
Playoffs or toilet bowl
Where each team's season ends up: the top 6 make the playoffs, the bottom 2 play in the toilet bowl.
Show as a table
| TEAM | PLAYOFFS | NEITHER | TOILET BOWL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hail Mary Hopefuls | <1% | 14% | 86% |
| Air Raid Offense | 1% | 33% | 66% |
| Hut Hut Hike | 3% | 52% | 45% |
| Cover Two | 39% | 57% | 3% |
| Play Action | 78% | 22% | <1% |
| Fourth & Long | 90% | 10% | <1% |
| Bench Mob | 90% | 10% | <1% |
| Red Zone Regulars | 99% | 1% | <1% |
| Two-Minute Drill | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| Waiver Wire Warriors | >99% | <1% | <1% |
Every number here is computed, not written by AI: 10,000 simulated seasons from each team's best projected lineup, calibrated against real results. Odds may not add to 100% because of rounding.